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Going Wild in the Bronx

Goldman doesn't think the Yanks will catch the Rays
07/03/2008 5:06 PM ET
By Steven Goldman / Special to YESNetwork.com
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Jason Giambi struggled in April, but has been hot at the plate since. (AP)
SHARK WEEK
I did something of a preview of the current four-game tilt against the Red Sox in Thursday's New York Sun. At the heart of my analysis is the prediction of a split — an insufficient result for the Yankees but one the Red Sox can live with given their current five-game losing streak/sweep in Tampa Bay. Two of the series' matchups, tonight's Jon Lester-Andy Pettitte bout and Friday's Josh Beckett-Darrell Rasner battle, seem tilted toward the Red Sox — the former because the Yankees have had a miserable time with lefties this year, especially when Joe Girardi has tried to platoon. You can't fault him for trying to platoon initially, but after approximately 30 games of oddly-mixed results, in which his righty reserves failed to hit while his reluctant lefty starters did just fine, you might ding him for not noticing that he might be better off just playing his best lineup regardless and not worrying so much about who is on the mound.

Should the Yankees be able to exploit Boston's weaknesses and win three of four, their Wild Card chances will be revitalized — sorry, campers, but even if the Rays collapse, eight games is a lot to make up at any time of year, so the Wild Card it is. If they split or worse, it's just more of the same — more inconsistency from a team that's just a bit short here and there — and their slim postseason chances would take another hit.

YOU PROBABLY KNOW THIS...
...But it's still cool to think about. Since May 1, a span of 51 games, Jason Giambi has hit .315/.443/.630. Compare that to Alex Rodriguez overall at .321/.406/.604. If Giambi had only started the season that way, folks would be mentioning him for MVP. By the way: just who the heck is the American League MVP? The most productive hitters are all Rangers, but it's hard to see one of them getting the award.

THE AROUND (AND ABOUT)
• There was an article in Wednesday's New York Times about the crashing American auto industry: "The seismic shift by consumers to small cars from large vehicles has blindsided virtually every automaker." Really? There has been unrest in the Middle East forever. We've been at war there since 2003. There have been any number of books out arguing that we've passed the peak in oil production. There have been even more books, newspaper articles, giant glowing fingers writing on the wall for the last few years saying repeatedly, "As the Chinese and Indian economies heat up, the price of oil is going to go through the roof." I'm not in the automobile industry and I'm not surprised, so why should the people responsible for these companies be surprised?

• Another poor outing for Carlos Marmol on Wednesday, allowing a three-run home run to Ray Durham. Oddly enough, this kind of performance earns Kyle Farnsworth praise from certain media outlets, but there's no figuring that out. A functional Marmol would obviously make a huge difference to the Cubs' postseason chances, and it wouldn't be surprising if the club felt forced to make a deal for another relief arm at some point.

• Giants' reliever Keiichi Yabu's nickname should be "Yabba Dabba."

• Miguel Cairo got a start for the Mariners and went 2-for-4 with two doubles, three RBIs, prompting the usual media paroxysms of praise. Did you know Cairo can fly and transform ordinary, common garden lizards into raging sauropods with his dinosaur vision? More interesting, in that same game, Ichiro Suzuki's 3-for-3 brought his batting average over .300 for the first time since early April. At .301/.359/.375, he's still not doing much, but at least he's headed in the right direction.

• Seth McClung is a great example of why it is so hard to know when to write off a pitcher — sometimes a broken hurler is fixable, it's just the insight that's lacking. The Rays spent three years trying to get some value from McClung and didn't come close. The Brewers have had him for about a year now, and he's a whole other guy. He won't win the Cy Young award, but his ERA is closer to 4.00 than 6.50. The former is something every team can use, while the latter will propel you toward a high-draft pick pretty quickly but that's it.

• In 15 games under Jerry Manuel, the Mets are 7-8. The roster didn't get any younger, healthier or deeper when Willie Randolph was sent home.

• No idea where the Yankees would play him — first base or left field or both — but Xavier Nady, .323/.384/.544 overall, .323/.438/.538 against lefthanders, could be helpful and he figures to be available. As per Shark Week above, if the Yankees do well over the weekend, thinking about being buyers at the deadline becomes more of a reasonable thing. If not, enjoy Pittsburgh, Mr. Nady.

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MONDAY, June 30: Posted at 12:18 p.m. EST

It's about time. The Yankees have apparently called up Brett Gardner. It's not yet been made clear what his role will be, but with Hideki Matsui out of the picture for now, there are at-bats to be soaked up in the left field/designated hitter mélange. There is also the possibility, seemingly remote, that Melky Cabrera could take a seat given that in the 53 games since the end of April he's hit .223/.284/.290. This last would be such a shockingly aggressive move for the Yankees that it difficult to contemplate. It would mark a dramatic break from the Joe Torre years, when players were granted something like tenure, seemingly safe in the lineup regardless of performance.

Subject for another time: just how deferential Brian Cashman was to Torre in those decisions.

We've often discussed Gardner in this space. Do not expect to be overwhelmed. What you're getting here is not Ty Cobb, but a diet version of a young Johnny Damon. He's a speedy little guy (5'10"), 24 years old. He's going to slap the ball around, and with 61 walks in 80 Triple-A games should up the Yankees' walk rate a bit — presently they stand eighth in the American League in walks drawn, though they're third in on-base percentage, which is to say they aren't the most patient club, but they hit safely when they swing. Parenthetically, the two clubs that rank ahead of them in the American League East have drawn more walks. Boston is first, Tampa fifth. Also expect some strikeouts as Gardner takes pitches. He will also, assuming he plays, add a much-needed element of speed.

The Yankees need pitching as much as offense just now, but with Gardner on hand, trying to tweak the offense is an easier, less traumatic thing to attempt. With his promotion and the call-up of reliever David Robertson, we at last have a sign that the Cashman-Joe Girardi administration will be less satisfied to sit back and let things work themselves out than the Cashman-Torre administration was.

THE BRETT GARDNER INTERVIEW ENCORE
I interviewed Gardner last August when he was at Double-A Trenton. As we spent most of the time discussing his style of play, it still has relevance. For those that missed it the first time around, here it is again:

Pinstriped Bible: You've come really far in just a short period of time. Could you give a brief scouting report on yourself? How do you see your skills developing?

Brett Gardner: I feel like everything in my career has happened exactly the way I'd want it to. I'm happy to be here, happy to have moved this far. In the short period I've been with the Yankees I'm lucky to be in Double-A, and hopefully finish out the season here and do well. As far as my self as a player, I'd say I'm a prototypical leadoff guy. I get on base any way possible whether it be hitting a ground ball and trying to get an infield hit, or try to drop some balls in the gap and get some doubles and some triples, bunt for a hit, get on base and make things happen, use my speed to my advantage and steal some bases, and play good defense and cover a lot of ground out there and track some balls down.

PB: Not a lot of players have as developed a sense of the strike zone as you do when they first come into the game. Is that something you've worked on?

BG: It's something I've worked on over the last few years. I was in college for four years and that helped me mature a lot, not only as a person but as a baseball player, and I'm very thankful for that. I used those four years to my advantage. I'm 22 years old so I was a little old, I guess, considering that most people start pro ball around 20 or so, but I'm 22 at Double-A so I guess now I'm a little young for where I'm at. As far as the strike zone's concerned I feel like I have a pretty good idea of it. I try to work the count, make the pitcher throw some pitches, see some pitches, and see what he's got early in the game. If I get a good pitch I'm going to take advantage and hit it, but I like to work the count and get on base any way possible, whether it be getting a hit, getting hit by a pitch, or getting a walk.

PB: When fans talk about players who are and aren't selective, there seems to be a problem with perception. It's often treated as a choice rather than a skill that some players just don't have, something that physically they may be incapable of. What's your perspective?

BG: I think no matter what a guy does people are always going to question it. Watching TV earlier everyone is talking about how bad of a player A-Rod is. I mean, let's get serious. A lot of people say, "Why do you take so many so many pitches? Why don't you jump on some fastballs and hit 'em?" Well, if I jumped on more fastballs early, then people would say, "Why don't you take more pitches?" It's something where I need to find a happy medium and use it in my best interest. However I can get on base is what I need to do. I feel that by taking pitches it helps me have quality at bats and helps me find my way on base. A walk's just as good as a hit. My goal is to get on base and make things happen and apply pressure to the defense and score runs. That's my job.

PB: Do you try to hit the ball on the ground?

BG: Definitely. I'm not a home run hitter. If I wanted to, over the course of the season I could probably hit ten or so home runs, but that's not my job. The guys that hit behind me in the lineup, that's what they do. That's why I bat at the top of the lineup, because I'm supposed to hit the ball on the ground, I'm supposed to find ways to get on base. Even if it's right to somebody I'm going to run a hard 90 to first and if they hesitate at all I'm going to be safe. It's part of applying pressure to the defense. I don't try to hit the ball on the ground, I try to hit a line drive every time, but if I miss I want to miss a little on top of it instead of under it.

PB: You hit five home runs last year. Were those just on line drives that carried?

BG: Just balls that I got a hold of, balls that were middle-in that I turned on. I hit two in one game last year and who's to say that won't happen tonight? I haven't hit any home runs this year but I'm not trying to, and if I finish the year with no home runs I don't care. It doesn't matter if I finish with no home runs or 11 home runs, my job is to get on base and make things happen and hitting home runs isn't the way to do that.

PB: A lot of young players when they first turn pro, if they're base stealers, their success rate often isn't very good. You seem to be successful a good deal of the time.

BG: Our manager, Billy Masse, he's working with me a lot on when to run, when not to run, on different counts and different situations, whatever the situation calls for as far as the score, the count, or who's batting behind me, stuff like that. Sometimes if the pitcher is throwing a 1-1, 1-2 to the plate and he's got a quick slide step you can't go. You can't steal on everybody. But if the guy is slow to the plate and he allows you to steal, you have to take advantage of that.

PB: You must get asked this all the time, but here goes: the Yankees happen to have lost a couple of outfielders this year, but generally they're pretty stacked at the major league level. Does that discourage you at all?

BG: No, not at all. I'm lucky to be part of an organization like the Yankees and get treated well. I'd rather be part of this organization than another organization that's low-budget and doesn't treat you as well. It's just nice to be part of the Yankees. The things that the Yankees have done over the years and their reputation, it's just unbelievable. I can't worry about that. I've got to come to the field every day and work hard and play hard every day and make things happen. If it's with the Yankees or the Royals or the Diamondbacks -

PB: Don't say the Royals.

BG: — It doesn't matter. My goal is to make it to the big leagues whether it's with the Yankees or any of the other 30 teams in baseball —

PB: — But not the Royals. You really don't want to go to the Royals.

BG: It doesn't matter. It's not discouraging. That's part of the game.

PB: Did you follow a team growing up?

BG: I've just been a big fan of baseball. I never really had a favorite team. I'm from South Carolina so I guess when I was little maybe the Braves a little bit, but I never really had a favorite team, die hard, one way or another.

PB: Was there a player you modeled yourself after?

BG: Not really. Maybe a Brett Butler kind of guy.

PB: He was with the Braves, but that was a little before your time.

BG: Yeah, it was before my time.

THE AROUND (AND ABOUT)
• I can't figure out if attendees at this weekend's Dodgers-Angels series saw some really great pitching or some really bad hitting. Three consecutive shutouts, a total of eight runs scored in the series, and the Angels pitched a no-hitter and lost. I will say that I don't know much about who is going to pitch in the All-Star game, but I do know that John Lackey will be towards the top of the list. Cliff Lee stayed off the DL and has been very good as well, but as Lackey is the proven commodity, I'd rather see him get the honor.

• MLB.com headline: "Giants showed spirit in the first half of 2008." For once, fair enough.

• Meet Kevin Slowey of the Twins, the pitcher Ian Kennedy was supposed to be. He's another command guy, except unlike Kennedy, he has command. On Sunday, he shut out the Brewers on three hits, no walks, and eight strikeouts. For the season he's walked one batter per nine innings.

• After a hot weekend (9-for-14), Dustin Pedroia is now hitting .304/.348/.442. I trust I'll be hearing less about his standing in the All-Star balloting now.

Juan Pierre left Sunday's game in the sixth inning with an apparent knee injury after stealing a base. Hey, Delwyn Young: here's your big chance to make millions. All you have to do is hit better than .277/.327/.318 for about two weeks or until Andruw Jones comes back.

• Two thoughts on Ronnie Belliard's two-run, walk-off home run in the bottom of the 12th inning at Washington on Sunday: first, I'm not sure who the announcer was who said, "That's one way to get Dmitri Young around the bases," but I admire his honesty. Second, Belliard stood and admired his shot for approximately half an hour, then walked halfway to first base before starting his jog. I don't mean to sound like a cranky old-school guy, but stuff like that makes you long for the days when batters knew not to do that, because the next time they met, the pitcher was likely to remove one of their ears.

• Trade him while he's hot: A.J. Burnett on Sunday pitched seven scoreless innings against the Braves with 11 strikeouts. That said, the Braves aren't the Braves just now, with Ruben Gotay and Brent Lillibridge in the lineup and Jeff Francoeur in a long, long freefall, hitting .225/.289/.349 over 54 games going into Sunday.

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Steven Goldman's Pinstriped Blog appears daily on YESNetwork.com. "Forging Genius," Steve's biography of Casey Stengel, and "Mind Game," the story of the Red Sox' 2004 championship, and "Baseball Between the Numbers," from the authors of Baseball Prospectus, are now available at Amazon.com. More Steve is available on YESNetwork.com in the Pinstriped Bible, and the Baseball Prospectus Web site. Your questions, comments, suggestions welcomed at oldprofessor@wholesomereading.com. The opinions stated above are solely those of the author and should not be attributed to anyone connected in an official capacity with the YES Network.
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