YES Network.com

That said, there are a couple of matters where I'm working with a definite confirmation bias, and I bet you are too. The fourth game of the season provided plenty of comfort food for those of us looking for evidence of what we'd already decided was true, particularly that Kyle Farnsworth isn't ever going to pay off for the Yankees -- the home run he allowed was meaningless in terms of the outcome of the game, but the very fact of it underscored that despite a new year, a new pitching coach, a new manager, and so on, he's still the same hard-throwing meatball chef of yore. Brian Cashman is a very reasonable guy about a lot of things, so one wonders why he has so stubbornly tried to get blood out of this particular stone.

I'm also still not sold on LaTroy Hawkins, and -- here's that confirmation bias again -- his being saturation bombed on Friday didn't help. Hawkins has become a control and contact pitcher over the last few years. It didn't really work out well with the Orioles in 2006; he was fairly successful with the Rockies last year, but he also had one of baseball's best defenses behind him and he was pitching in the weaker league. Batters hit only .269 against him when they put in the ball in play, in part because of that defense, in part because he became a groundball machine last year. Even if the groundball rate remains high -- and this is something we pointed out in the BP annual -- there's a big difference between having Troy Tulowitzki picking up after you and having Derek Jeter doing it.

Just ask Chien-Ming Wang.

THE AROUND
• It's odd to see Gabe Kapler's name back in a box score, especially with a 3-for-5 attached to it, as it was on Friday. With a name like Gabe, I can't resist adding, "Welcome Back, Kapler."

• Odd that the Tigers have a worse record than the Giants. That will last just a few days more, of course. That said, the Tigers have been greatly overestimated in the preseason press.

• A's leadoff man Travis Buck, a guy who is supposed to stroke singles in his sleep (that sounds dirty somehow), is 0-for-22 on the season. I speculated a couple of days ago that there must be something physically wrong with Huston Street. He gave up another run on Friday night, a home run to Travis Hafner.

• Joe Torre has been batting catcher Russell Martin second, something he could profitably have done with Jorge Posada as well (he did try it a few times in 2000, but never went back to it). Of course, Posada is and was spectacularly slow, while Martin can run a bit, and that probably makes all the difference to Joe. Grady Little tried Martin in the No. 2 spot for the first week or so last year, then dropped him to sixth for the rest of the season.

• Russ Springer of the Cards gave up a home run to Christian Guzman of the Nats on Friday. Both are former sons of the Yankees organization, though what's amazing here is that Russ Spring still rolls on. This is a guy the Bombers dealt for Jim Abbott.

• Rudy Seanez, just picked up by the Phillies, pitched a scoreless inning for them last night. He's one team short of an even ten, not counting double-dips with the Padres, Dodgers, Braves, and Red Sox.

• For anyone who gets up earlier than I like to, I'll be on the CW11 in New York around 6:50 AM on Monday. Please -- get some sleep if you can.

CLICK HERE TO COMMENT

MONDAY, April 3: Posted at 11:50 a.m. ET

THIS POSES A PROBLEM FOR ME (AND I LIKE IT)
Peter Abraham reports that Joe Girardi has a copy of Baseball Prospectus 2008 in his office. I complement the man on his fine choice of reading material. This will have the effect of making me feel guilty whenever I disagree with him in the future. I'm only human; I spent all winter helping to bring that book to life. Yet, criticize him I shall when it's called for. It's part of the job description.

Fortunately, we've had only two games, so there's not too much for me to say right now. As I indicated yesterday, there are a few areas where I'm curious about how Girardi's learning curve resolves. These are essentially questions of where he lands on the passivity/aggressiveness scale in making substitutions. After Game 1, I worried that Girardi was overly sanguine about Jason Giambi's defense. As if to underscore that concern, it took only until Game 2 for the first baseman to make an error leading to a run. Anyone can do that, and there's no use in jumping to conclusions, but it seems certain that there will be more misplays (or plays simply not made) coming. We need to see when/if Girardi revises his current stance on defensive substitution for Giambi, which, at least through two games, is not to do it.

A secondary issue to this is that of platooning Giambi. The presence of Morgan Ensberg and Shelley Duncan on the roster gives Girardi ample opportunity to protect Giambi from left-handed pitching, against whom he struggles to hit for average. Note how that is phrased-struggles to hit for average. In the past, Giambi has still touched them for enough walks and home runs that strictly platooning him wouldn't have necessarily been wise. But this may not be your father's Giambi, and protecting him from those nasty portsiders seems advisable-Brian Tallet in last night's seventh inning, for example.

Again, you can argue about these things, and this doesn't quite rise to the level of a first- or second-guess, but rather is a part of the process of gathering evidence as to how this manager works right now.

One other question suggests itself, and that is whether the Yankees are going to have a caught stealing a game this year. Many young managers, or managers in a new job, emphasize running; it's an in-game button they can push, a modicum of control they can exercise at a time when they are not at their most secure. The Yankees don't have the team for it; Bobby Abreu and Derek Jeter have been good basestealers in the past, but the former is 34 and the latter will be in a matter of two months. Their rabbit days are abating.

I'm not going to say anything about Mike Mussina's night just now. I remain skeptical, but it's too soon to start making arguments. As I wrote yesterday, at the end of this 20-game stretch the Yankees can pause and reassess all their early judgments.

THE AROUND
• It's always depressing to see an all-time great pitcher like Pedro Martinez reach the stage of his career where, well, he's not great anymore, or not healthy enough to be great. That's been the case with the future Hall of Famer for a couple of years now. He's also point of evidence #924 that the only way the Mets win the NL East is if the Phillies and the Braves suffer even more injuries than they do-not that those two teams have done anything as of yet, but it's still early.

• Joe Torre's game ended yesterday in a 2-1 loss thanks to a ninth inning strike 'em out (Rafael Furcal)/throw 'em out (Juan Pierre) double play. If the Dodgers are lucky that will reinforce Torre's Pierre aversion.

• Al Reyes personally revived concerns about the Rays' bullpen last night. Two-thirds of an inning, four runs-that's the definition of arson.

• Brad Ausmus got double-switched in at second base last night. It wasn't the first time that's happened, and he didn't have to handle a chance. Cecil Cooper had played himself into that position by replacing both of his middle infielders earlier in the game. The early reviews of Cooper were that he's not the next John McGraw, but you have to admire his willingness to do anything to win a game.

CLICK HERE TO COMMENT

MONDAY, April 1: Posted at 11:40 a.m. ET

That close enough to a classic Who reference?

Monday's rainout caused all kinds of plans to go astray, but I still got some licks in on the baseball beat. Yesterday's chat, which covered everything from baseball to the Beatles (as usual) can be found here. Not satisfied, I also did a tongue-in-cheek piece for the solar men of the New York Sun. Finally, this morning at Baseball Prospectus I explained why Opening Day celebrates Lincoln's new birth of freedom. Well, I never put it exactly that way in the article, but that's the gist of it.

Oh, and I'll be back in my weekly spot with Picard on Montreal's TEAM 990 this season starting tonight at 9:05. For the many (all?) of us who happen not to be in Canada, you can listen live here.

I'll be back with a brand-new, full-length Pinstriped Bible in the late hours following tonight's game. Rather than rehash the same old Yankees issues one last time, it would be nice to have some game action that counts to talk about.

As for the games that were played, as I said in the Sun column, it's foolish to draw too many conclusions, perhaps any conclusions, from one day of action. Still, it's at the very least amusing how many things that seemed to be true in the offseason were true yesterday. The Tigers' bullpen failed. The Orioles were miserable and the Giants even more so. Dusty Baker's lineup made no earthly sense. Eric Gagne pitched like he was still with the Red Sox. The Phillies' bullpen also appeared to be non-existent, with Tom Gordon failing badly. The Dodgers looked really good. The Nats look like 100-game winners...

...Well, no one predicated that, but see what reading "Mind Game" can do for you?

Back after the game, if game there be. Play ball already!

CLICK HERE TO COMMENT

MONDAY, March 31: Posted at 10:22 a.m. ET

OPENING DAY SNAP JUDGMENTS ON EVERYBODY EXCEPT THE YANKEES (IN ANTICIPATED ORDER OF FINISH)
AL EAST
Boston Red Sox: The defending champs are by definition the team to beat, but what makes them so dangerous is that they have the depth to take quite a few hits and keep on ticking.

Toronto Blue Jays: A cast of supporting actors in search of a star, this pitching staff and an MVP candidate would make them very dangerous — only they don't have an MVP candidate.

Tampa Bay Rays: It should be their best season, but a lot will depend on how fast they cut bait on back-of-the-rotation holdovers should they again fail to deliver, lucking into a decent bullpen, and not losing too much momentum waiting for Evan Longoria's super-two arb eligibility to sour like old milk.

Baltimore Orioles: The outfield should have a bit of pop, the infield won't have any, and they'll actively punish their fans by making them sit through a Steve Trachsel start once every five days, a form of torture even the Attorney General couldn't countenance.

AL CENTRAL
Cleveland Indians: A strong bullpen and top-heavy rotation makes them the favorites in the division, they may ultimately need to swing a deal for a true corner bat — but only if back-of the-rotation needs don't call more urgently.

Detroit Tigers: Those predicting a 1,000-run offensive season are discounting an inevitable step back from some of last year's big hitters. Meanwhile, the bullpen is a work in progress, but only in the sense of one of those graft-ridden highway improvement projects that never ends.

Chicago White Sox: They've shown some boldness in remaking the team this spring, but not all the changes are positive — going from Juan Uribe to Pablo Ozuna and from Josh Fields to Joe Crede is actually an anti-youth movement. At least new centerfielder Alexei Ramirez is intriguing.

Minnesota Twins: Probably will be the worst Twins team since 2000, the year a 21-year-old Johan Santana came up and posted miserable rates and a 6.49 ERA (an occurrence the Yankees could usefully keep in mind this season), when the 8-9-1 spots (Brendan Harris, Adam Everett, Carlos Gomez) come up, it will be a good time to head to the rest room.

Kansas City Royals: Still looking for a hook, the best you can say just now is that the bullpen will probably be functional, the top of the rotation could be okay, and Alex Gordon and Billy Butler could impress with the rookie stuff out of the way. But there's still too much dross and not enough ready material on the farm, which is why they should be looking to flip anything over 25 at the deadline.

AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels: The Angels are always smart but events have got them out of whack this spring, with two top starters on the DL (one, Kelvin Escobar, possibly for life) and six outfielders on the roster. They'll win the division anyway because (a) their second-line starters will step up and (b) the other teams are that bad.

Oakland A's: Just because they're rebuilding, don't expect them to be doormats. They won't score many runs (Jack Cust could be the only player with 20-plus home runs), but with a semblance of health on the pitching staff they won't allow many either — which is to say they'll be an annoyance to everyone all year long.

Seattle Mariners: You can't say, "Big hat, no cattle," because they have cattle; it's just all concentrated in one breed, pitching. Very similar to the Blue Jays in that they'll pitch but lack a big bopper; dissimilar to the Blue Jays in that the guys who play north of the border have a more rounded lineup, while the M's have several positions, such as second, short, and DH, that are likely to be total losses at the bat.

Texas Rangers: As usual, they should hit a bit but there's no reason to believe in the pitching staff; Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley at least give them two interesting "story" guys who also happen to be very good ballplayers.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Atlanta Braves: One through eight one of the best lineups in baseball — well, that's being too optimistic about Mark Kotsay, but they have so many other options for center field they can try a new guy a month and not run out. Despite their Opening Night loss, the bullpen should be functional, and if the starting rotation is a bit short, well, whose isn't?

New York Mets: They'll suffer just enough wheezles and sneezles and pulled groins that they won't be able to hang on. There are going to be days when Endy Chavez, Angel Pagan, Damion Easley, Marlon Anderson, and Brian Schneider are in the lineup, and that's not a pennant-winning ballclub no matter who you have on the pitching staff. That said, it's going to be fun when/as/if they're healthy, with a starting top four that can generate a lot of swing-and-misses.

Philadelphia Phillies: Same story as last year: the hitters will hit, but everything about the pitching staff after Brett Myers and Cole Hamels is in question — and this time the pack won't come back to them.

Washington Nationals: Don't know if they're building towards anything — there's not a single pitcher on the staff who will be part of the first great Nats team — but they should be scrappy good fun with their Outfield o' Characters and quality corner infield guys Nick the Stick and Ryan the Zimmerman.

Florida Marlins: If not for the presence of Hanley Ramirez at shortstop you'd swear they were an expansion team all over again. When Mark Hendrickson is your Opening Day starter, you're clearly not trying — not that anybody thought they were trying.

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs: They'll win the division, and maybe the National League, even if they don't get Brian Roberts, the difference between those two players perhaps being all of one or two wins in Roberts' favor. The rotation is solid, the bullpen has a head for once (though for how long none can say), and the bats will be the best decongestants a baseball ever had.

Cincinnati Reds: The best you can say for the Reds' disposition of their best prospects this spring is that none of them, with perhaps the exception of Johnny Cueto, played well enough to embarrass the always skeptical Dusty Baker into taking them north. To this the rational mind replies that last season should count for more than three weeks in Spring Training, but then a rational mind would know that arguing for rationality in an irrational world is, well, irrational. There are other things to worry about, like a bullpen shortage and the inevitability of Corey Patterson's .298 career OBP somewhere near the top of the order, to think that mere self-destructiveness will be the only thing making a difference.

Milwaukee Brewers: Another team that can hit, but apparently more likely to be shot through with injuries than a front line soldier at the Somme, the bullpen has Guillermo Mota in it, and there's far too much Jason Kendall and Tony Gwynn II than can possibly be healthy.

Pittsburgh Pirates: You can throw these last three teams in a hat. This is an unusually high ranking for the Pirates, but they're still likely to finish with another losing record. They're not going to hit, but the pitching staff should be fairly solid.

Houston Astros: They should hit a little bit, play very mediocre defense, and not pitch at all on Roy Oswalt's days off.

St. Louis Cardinals: No pitching, very little hitting after Albert Pujols, and the perennial MVP may not make it through the entire season given his persistent elbow problems. In the team film for this season, they'll need to score the starting rotation montage with the 1812 Overture.

NL WEST
Los Angeles Dodgers: Believe it or not, Joe Torre opted for the younger man in choosing Andre Ethier over Juan Pierre. That said, you know that Ethier's reign will last as long as his first 0-for-4. Third base is likely to be a total loss, but they're solid around the rest of the field and they get to reload an already-deep pitching staff with Clayton Kershaw whenever they feel like it.

Arizona Diamondbacks: They should pitch well, even with the starting rotation already fraying a bit around the edges, but expecting them to win it all also requires believing all of their young hitters will take Hulk-leaps forward. Some will, but not enough of them to make for a top-drawer offense. What do you keep in your top drawer? Socks and underwear? The Diamondbacks need more underwear, fewer socks.

Colorado Rockies: The Rockies are just a shade behind the leaders, but if young starters Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales can step up over a full season, that evaluation could prove to be overly conservative. Then again: Mark Redman.

San Diego Padres: They'll pitch, but the lineup is a complete mess, with too little defense, too little offense. If they could pry a David DeJesus away from the Royals today it wouldn't be too soon.

San Francisco Giants: Could be the team's first 100-game loser since 1985. There isn't even enough here to have a fire sale.

Playoff teams: Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Angels; Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks.

YANKEES' OPENING DAY LINEUP
Hideki Matsui bats eighth? It should really be Johnny Damon. Since Matsui joined the Yankees in 2003, Damon has been the better hitter exactly never, the fact that Matsui missed two-thirds of 2006 notwithstanding. Matsui also out-hit Damon in Spring Training, and will do so again in the regular season... It's a small matter, I suppose, unless Matsui takes it as an insult.

CUBS DEMOTE MURTON AND MARSHALL
Sean Marshall, Matt Murton. That's a good trade for some club right there. It's not enough to get Brian Roberts, but you'd take those two and a strong pitching prospect. The Indians, with weaknesses in the outfield corners and the back end of the rotation, could benefit from that kind of trade right now.

COLOR ME INTRIGUED
Can someone let Bert Randolph Sugar know that those of us in the history biz would like to know what he did with Jacob Ruppert's archive? His disposition of Babe Ruth's unmentionables can remain a subject for further research.

OPENING DAY GAME CHAT (LAST CALL)
A live in-game chat with your host will commence with the game at 1 p.m. EST and continue as long as things remain lively and interesting. You can get your questions in now or watch along with me.

...AND BACK HERE AFTER THE GAME FOR AN OPENING DAY WRAP-UP
Double-stuff Pinstriped Bible fun!

CLICK HERE TO COMMENT